GOD BLESS YOU PRESIDENT CORY!

GOD BLESS YOU PRESIDENT CORY!

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Pepeng Now Called a Super Typhoon — Pinoys Praying That It Will Spare the Country, Evening of October 1, 2009 (UPDATED Oct 4 2009)

1 October 2009  11:18pm

Pepeng is now being called a super typhoon.  I just watched the weather forecast at ABS-CBN's Bandila a few moments ago and they're saying that Pepeng (international codename Parma)  has maximum sustained winds of 195 kph with gustiness of 230 kph.  Technically, those statistics do not quite categorize Pepeng as a super typhoon.

This is the Wikipedia article on Tropical Cyclone.  It says that a super typhoon needs 10-minute sustained winds of 213 kph and above. 

Earlier, CNN's Jennifer Delgado made this weather forecast saying Pepeng or Parma has maximum sustained winds of 241 kph with gustiness of 296 kph.  If true, those figures would make Pepeng a super typhoon.  The CNN video clip below has been posted at youtube.



In any event, the plain reality is that one really won't know much of a difference between a near-super typhoon and a super typhoon. Both would have far more devastating power than anyone would want to face out there in the open.

And this time, our government is not taking any chances. Defense Secretary and NDCC Chair Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro has ordered "preemptive evacuation" of people living in flood-prone areas and landslide-prone areas. The evacuation will be forcible when that becomes necessary. Properly implemented, this is obviously the correct approach — it is always better to err on the side of caution.  

Meanwhile, three possible scenarios are being looked at with respect to Pepeng.  The map below shows this scenarios:


The first scenario is represented by the red line wherein Pepeng will continue on its west nortwest route and make landfall in the area between Aurora and Isabela.  The second scenario, represented by the blue line, sees Pepeng making landfall near the same area but veering south west and straddling Central and Northern Luzon as it makes its way to the South China Sea.  The third is the no-landfall scenario which sees Pepeng veering to the north while still in the Pacific Ocean sparing Luzon and proceeding to the general area of Taiwan. 

Storm signal no. 2 has been hoisted over Catanduanes (the Philippine province now nearest Pepeng) while signal no. 1 is now raised over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Burias Island, Quezon, Polillo Island, Aurora, Sorsogon and Northern Samar.


As Pepeng continues its slow but steady approach towards the Philippines, Filipinos are one in praying that this super typhoon will spare our country. Pinoys are known for their hospitality but Pepeng is one deadly visitor we can very well afford to be without.  


UPDATE
2 October 2009  7:13am

These are Pepeng storm signals as of Friday, October 2, 2009 7:13am based on information from Umagang Kay Ganda:

Signal No. 2 (winds from 61 - 100 kph)
Catanduanes
Camarines Norte
Northern Quezon
Aurora
Polillo Island


Signal No. 1 (winds from 30 - 60 kph)
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Apayao
Kalinga
Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
Isabela
Mt Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union 
Nueva Vizccaya
Quirino
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Rizal
Southern Quezon
Camarines Sur
Albay
Sorsogon
Burias Island


SATELLITE IMAGE UPDATE
2 October 2009  10:08am

This is the Pagasa satellite image of super typhoon Pepeng as of 10:00 am today:


MGA PAGHAHANDA PARA SA BAGYONG PEPENG

Ang bagyong Pepeng po ay inaasahang nagtataglay ng malalakas na hangin at malamang rin na magbitbit ng malakas na pag-ulan dahil bumagal po ang circulation nito at pinaniniwalaang humihigop ng mas maraming tubig mula sa Pacific Ocean. Huwag po nating tsambahan ang pagsalubong sa super typhoon na ito.  

Pinakikiusapan po ang ating mga kababayan na gumawa ng lahat ng kinakailangang paghahanda at pag-iingat kaugnay ng super typhoon Pepeng:

1) Lumikas na po ang lahat ng mga kababayan natin na dapat lumikas. Kung kayo ay nakatira sa bahaing lugar o lugar na maaaring gumuho, mangyari lang po na humanap na muna kayo ng ibang lugar kung saan puwedeng dalhin ang inyong mga pamilya.  Sumunod po tayo sa mga awtoridad na magsasagawa ng "preemptive evacuation" katulad ng AFP at PNP na maaaring sumundo po sa atin para makalikas sa mga evacuation centers.

2) Iayos na po ang ating mga kabahayan, lalo na yung mga bubong habang paparating pa lang ang bagyo. 

3) Magtabi na po ng mga makakain at inuming tubig para sa panahon na hindi na tayo makakalabas ng bahay kapag nandiyan na ang bagyo.  Siguruhing meron tayong mga kandila, posporo, flashlights at batteries kung sakaling magkaroon ng brownouts.

4) Imonitor ang lagay ng panahon gamit ang radyo, TV, internet at iba pang communication facilities upang mabatid ang nangyayari sa ating paligid.  

5) Tiyaking lahat ng miyembro ng pamilya ay ligtas at alam natin ang kalagayan sa buong sandali ng pagdaan ng bagyo. Ipagpaliban na muna ang paglabas ng bahay kung hindi rin lang emergency ang mga ito.  Pati po ang mga alaga nating hayop ay tiyakin natin ang kaligtasan.

6) Siguruhing fully-charged ang ating mga cellphones at may sapat na load bago tumama ang bagyo. Yun pong mga cellphones ni Cristine Reyes ang nagsilbing tulay upang makahingi siya ng tulong habang nasa bubong ng bahay nila sa Provident Village na nagligtas ng buhay niya at ng kanyang pamilya. 

7)  Iiwas na ang lahat ng gamit na puwedeng bahain lalo na yung mga importanteng dokumento. Kung meron po kayong mga sasakyan na puwedeng abutin ng tubig at putik, ilikas na po ang mga ito sa mas matataas at ligtas na lugar.
  
8)  Higit sa lahat, ipagpatuloy po natin ang pagdarasal sa Diyos na ilayo ang ating bansa sa delubyo at ang ating mga mahal sa buhay sa peligro. 

Ingat po kayong lahat!  Mabuhay ang Pinoy!  Papuri sa Panginoon!

SATELLITE IMAGE UPDATE
2 October 2009  3:33 pm

This is the Pagasa satellite image of super typhoon Pepeng as of 3:00 pm today, Friday, October 2, 2009:

please click on the image to enlarge

SATELLITE IMAGE UPDATE
2 October 2009  10:47 pm

This is the Pagasa satellite image of super typhoon Pepeng as of 10:00 pm today, Friday, October 2, 2009:end


Kim Atienza reporting for ABS-CBN from Pagasa reports on a major development in the direction of super typhoon Pepeng.  

In an answer to prayers from millions of Pinoys, Pepeng has taken a more northerly route that would allow it to miss the expected Aurora - Isabela landfall area and veer instead towards northeastern Cagayan.


A miracle will save much of the Philippines from the wrath of super typhoon Pepeng.   


PEPENG MAKES LANDFALL
3 October 2009  7:55 pm

It breaks my heart to make this post update.  

Much of the Philippines indeed has been spared from the wrath of super typhoon Pepeng, especially the calamity-stricken areas of eastern Metro Manila and Rizal but our countrymen in northern Luzon are now bearing the 175 kph winds of this powerful howler. 

Super typhoon Pepeng is not so super anymore but it still packed enough power to uproot trees and topple power posts. 

Pepeng first made landfall in Cagayan province before 3pm today, Saturday, October 3, 2009. According to this GMA News flash report by Claire Delfin, Pepeng picked up speed just before it made landfall, from 17 kph to 24 kph, and changed direction, from Northwest to West-northwest.  The compass rose below gives us an idea of the change in direction made by Pepeng.





GMA News carries this article, Pepeng’ plunges NE Luzon into darkness; 4 people killed, in its website.  It said in part, "Areas in northeastern Luzon were shrouded in darkness when typhoon Pepeng unleashed its wrath, carrying strong winds that killed at least four people, displaced hundreds, destroyed agricultural crops, and made major thoroughfares impassable beginning Saturday afternoon."

As Pepeng made landfall in Cagayan, other areas in Northern Luzon felt the sting of the powerful typhoon's fury.


These are the prevailing storm signals as of 8pm, October 3, 2009:

Signal No. 3 (winds from 100 - 185 kph)
Cagayan
Babuyan Island
Calayan Island
Northern Isabela
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Mt. Province
Abra
Apayao
Kalinga
Batanes

Signal No. 2 (winds from 60 - 100 kph)
Rest of Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizccaya
Benguet
La Union

Signal No. 1 (winds from 30 - 60 kph)
Quirino
Aurora
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija

 
PEPENG ALMOST STATIONARY
NORTH OF LAOAG CITY, MORNING
AND AFTERNOON OF OCTOBER 4, 2009
4 October 2009  4:35 pm

As of 11:00 am today, Sunday, October 4, 2009, typhoon Pepeng was located 80 kms. North Northwest of Laoag City with maximum sustained winds of 120 kph and gustiness up to 150 kph.

Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) is almost stationary as it interacts with typhoon Melor which is expected to enter the fringes of the Philippine area of responsibility on its way to Japan. 

Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIXTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: TYPHOON "PEPENG" (PARMA)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Sunday, 04 October 2009
Typhoon "PEPENG" is moving slowly as it interacted with the Typhoon (MELOR) in the Pacific.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.)
80 km North Northwest of Laoag City
Coordinates:18.9°N, 120.1°E
Strength:Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near center
and gustiness of up to 150 kph
Movement:Forecast to remain almost stationary
Forecast Positions/Outlook:Monday morning:
120 km North Northwest of Laoag City
Tuesday morning:
160 km Northwest of Laoag City
Wednesday morning:
200 km West Northwest of Laoag City

These are the GMA News reports on the destruction wrought by typhoon Pepeng in Northern Luzon:














PEPENG SITUATED 150 KMS. NORTH NORTHWEST OF LAOAG CITY, 5PM, OCT 4, 2009
4 October 2009  5:19 pm

From 10 o'clock this morning to 5 o'clock this afternoon, a period of 7 hours, typhoon Pepeng has moved 70 kms in a west northwest direction.

Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: TYPHOON "PEPENG" (PARMA)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Sunday, 04 October 2009
Typhoon "PEPENG" has moved slowly towards the west northwest direction.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.)
150 kms North Northwest of Laoag City
Coordinates:19.6°N, 119.7°E
Strength:Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near center
and gustiness of up to 150 kph
Movement:Forecast to remain almost stationary
Forecast Positions/Outlook:Monday afternoon:
210 kms Northwest of Laoag City
Tuesday afternoon:
230 kms North Northwest of Laoag City
Wednesday afternoon:
240 kms West of Laoag City

This is the Pagasa satellite image as of 5pm.



These are the prevailing storm signals as of 8pm, October 3, 2009:

Signal No. 3 (winds from 100 - 185 kph)
Batanes Group of Islands
Northern Cagayan
Babuyan Islands
Calayan Islands
Ilocos Norte
Apayao

Signal No. 2 (winds from 60 - 100 kph)
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Kalinga
Rest of Cagayan

Signal No. 1 (winds from 30 - 60 kph)
La Union
Benguet
Mt. Province
Northern Isabela


AUTOMATIC SUSPENSION OF CLASSES IN TYPHOON-AFFECTED AREAS
4 October 2009 11:14pm

This is the Pagasa satellite image of typhoon Pepeng as of 11pm, Sunday, October 4, 2009. The typhoon was located at 200 kms. North northwest of Laoag City as of 10pm, October 4.

The storm warning signals have not changed since 8pm. In the absence of any order from your local officials (mayors or governors), the following areas will have automatic class suspensions for both public and private schools for Monday, October 5, 2009, based on DepEd Order No. 26, s. 2006:

Areas under Signal No. 3 - Classes suspended at ALL levels
Batanes Group of Islands
Northern Cagayan
Babuyan Islands
Calayan Islands
Ilocos Norte
Apayao

Areas under Signal No. 2 - Classes suspended at the preschool, elementary and high school
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Kalinga
Rest of Cagayan

Signal No. 1 - Classes suspended at the preschool level
La Union
Benguet
Mt. Province
Northern Isabela

I just heard from TV Patrol the announcement that classes are suspended at all levels for public schools tomorrow, Monday, October 5, 2009 in Taguig City.  We still have to confirm this announcement.


FUJIWHARA EFFECT OR 
FUJIWARA INTERACTION

In the meantime, you might want to take a look at this Pagasa update on typhoon Pepeng courtesy of GMANews.tv.  The 24 Oras video clip was posted at the GMA News website at 8:19pm. 

It shows Dr. Nathaniel Cruz of Pagasa discussing with Mel Tiangco the possibility of typhoon Pepeng remaining more or less stationary for the next two or three days.  He attributed this phenomenon to the presence of a high pressure area in China and the approach of the typhoon Melor farther out in the Pacific.  These two factors combine to force typhoon Pepeng to stay more or less where it is right now.  Dr. Cruz explained that after typhoon Melor enters the Philippine area of responsibility within the next day or two, it will then turn northward and only after that will typhoon Pepeng be able to move away from its present position.  The phenomenon is known as the Fujiwhara effect or Fujiwara interaction named after the Japanese meteorologist who first described it in a 1921 paper about the motion of vortices in water.


Before Pepeng eventually moves away from its present position, it is expected to swing back and pass over Northern Luzon anew, according to Dr. Cruz.





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