Noli De Castro Tops Pulse Asia's May 2009 Presidentiables Survey, Plus Other Pulse Asia Findings

2 June 2009

Vice President Noli de Castro topped the latest Pulse Asia survey with four other presidential contenders breathing down his neck.  These are Escudero, Estrada, Villar and Roxas.  

The survey fieldwork was conducted from May 4 to May 17, 2009 using face-to-face interviews.

Says Pulse Asia in its report, "if the May 2010 elections were held today, five individuals would garner about the same percentages of votes cast" indicating a very close race among the above contenders. 

Here's the report from Saksi:

For the latest Philippine news stories and videos, visit GMANews.TV

Also, straight from the Pulse Asia website,  here is the summary of their findings.  

Since they explicitly made this request — "We request you to assist us in informing the public by dissseminating this information," I take it to mean that I can reproduce their report in full here: 

ULAT NG BAYAN

Pulse Asia's May 2009 Nationwide Survey on Filipinos' Presidential Preference for the May 2010 Elections Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on Filipinos' Presidential Preference for the May 2010 Elections from the May 2009 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information. The survey fieldwork was conducted from May 4 to 17, 2009 using face-to-face interviews. Among the developments that dominated the news headlines prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey were: the global spread of the AH1N1 virus; the declaration of additional winners in the May 2007 party-list elections; the disqualification of all poll automation bidders which fueled talks about a no-election scenario next year; the continued charter change discussions and in particular, House Speaker Prospero Nograles’ declaration that a constitutional convention would be convened by August 2009; the Senate investigation into various issues most especially the ethics case against Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr.; the deaths and destruction of properties from the typhoons that hit the Philippines recently; the tragedy that hit the Failon family and the ensuing verbal tussles involving the Philippine National Political (PNP), National Bureau of Investigation (NBI), and Department of Justice (DOJ) concerning the investigation of the case; the arrest of Engr. Rodolfo Lozada, Jr. on perjury charges; the latest boxing victory of Manny Pacquiao and speculations as regards his political plans for May 2010; and the drop in Meralco power rates and the fluctuating prices of diesel and gasoline.. As in our previous surveys, this nationwide survey is based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a ± 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a ± 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Those interested in further technical details concerning the survey's questionnaire and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.   Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort. For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816. Presidential race remains tight Despite continued talks about a no-election scenario and uncertainties regarding the automation of the May 2010 elections, the level of public interest in the elections remains high with practically all Filipinos having favored presidential, vice-presidential, and senatorial candidates for May 2010. With about a year to go before the May 2010 elections, Filipinos are still divided when it comes to their choice of their next president.  If the May 2010 elections were held today, five individuals would garner about the same percentages of votes cast.  These are Vice-President Noli L. de Castro (18%), Senator Francis G. Escudero (17%), former President Joseph Estrada (15%), Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (14%), and Senator Manuel A. Roxas II (13%).  The other personalities included in the presidential probe register voter preference of 7% or less.  Meanwhile, virtually all Filipinos already have a preferred presidential bet with only 4% disinclined to vote for any of the individuals whose presidential voter preferences are probed in this survey (See Table 1). In Metro Manila and the best-off Class ABC, Senator Escudero (26%) is the top presidential bet.  In Mindanao, former President Estrada (27%) and Vice-President de Castro (21%) have almost the same voter preferences. The five presidential candidates currently leading at the national level also enjoy nearly the same levels of electoral support in the rest of Luzon (13% to 18%) and the most numerous Class D (14% to 17%).  In the Visayas, the favored presidentiables are Senator Roxas (22%), Senator Villar (20%), Vice-President de Castro (18%), and Senator Escudero (15%), while class E favors Vice-President de Castro (25%), former President Estrada (19%), Senator Escudero (15%) and Senator Villar (13%) (See Table 1). Between February and May 2009, the movements in the voter preferences of these personalities fall within the survey’s error margin of +/- 3 percentage points.  The most marked changes during this period are the 5 percentage-point improvement enjoyed by Senator Roxas and the 5 percentage-point erosion recorded by Senator Loren Legarda (See Table 2). About one in three Filipinos (34%) is voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate’s being helpful to others, particularly the poor (27.3%) and OFWs (6.6%).  This is a view shared by 28.0% to 42.9% across geographic areas and socio-economic classes.  For around one in ten Filipinos (11.6%), the chosen candidate’s having many accomplishments is the reason cited for supporting his/her presidential bid.  A candidate’s being clean or not corrupt is cited by 7.1%, one’s goodness as a person (i.e., being mabait or mabuting tao) is mentioned by 5.6%, and one’s being a fighter (i.e., palaban) is identified by 5.4% as the reasons for favoring a presidential bet.  On the other hand, 30.6% of Filipinos cite a cluster of other attributes including a candidate’s being intelligent (5.0%), his/her being from the same geographic area or ethnic group as the respondent (3.0%), having good intentions for the country (2.5%), being independent or may sariling disposisyon (2.4%), being good at what he/she does (2.3%), pro-people or makatao (1.9%), being knowledgeable in the management of governmental affairs (1.8%), being strict (1.6%), being hardworking (1.6%), having the ability to fulfill promises made and other things (1.3%), being loyal (1.3%), being used to poverty or being poor him/herself (1.1%), being young (1.1%), and being approachable (1.0%)(Tables 3A, 3B and 3C).

end

Add Post To: | Digg| Technorati| Tip'd| del.icio.us| Stumbleupon| Reddit| BlinkList| Furl| Spurl| Yahoo| Simpy|

Judge Lorredo Says He's Being Pressured by "Lolo Gonzales" to Inhibit and Paints a Possible "Ninoy" Scenario and Martial Law in Lozada-Defensor Case

THE JUN LOZADA WATCH

14 May 2009

In a bizarre twist in the tangled perjury charge filed by defeated administration senatorial candidate Mike Defensor against ZTE-NBN scandal whisteblower Jun Lozada, Judge Lorredo of the Manila MTC Branch 26 is insisting that Malacañang is pressuring him to inhibit from the case. He identified DOJ Secretary Raul Gonzales, whom he called "Lolo Gonzales," as oneof those pressuring him to drop the case.

Even more intriguing is his claim that the situation might lead into a scenario reminiscent of the assasination of the late Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino, Jr. who was gunned down on August 21, 1983 as he was going down the tarmac of the then Manila International Airport.  Ninoy's death would signal the start of the end of the Marcos regime.  

Judge Lorredo painted this scenario, "Patayin si Lozada, pak!  Patay!  Just imagine, he will be another Ninoy. Meron lang sumigaw na 'Punta tayo sa Malacañang, pupunta 'yan eh.  Martial law.'"  

"Sana nga I'm very wrong with my analysis of the whole thing.  Pero pa'no kung tama ako?  I will not be able to forgive myself.  I will not be able to sleep well," added the now-controversial judge who insisted that he is not going to inhibit from the case in spite of the mounting pressures.

To prevent such an eventuality, Lorredo is hopeful that he could convince Defensor and Lozada to settle their differences amicably.  He even made an appeal to Manny Pacquiao to attend the next hearing of the case so he (Pacquiao) could talk to and convince Defensor and Lozada to come to terms regarding the case.

Lozada, meanwhile, is adamant that he just needs to see Defensor face-to-face in court so he could repeat his assertions that the latter tried to bribe him to keep quiet with what he knew about the ZTE-NBN deal. He said that his stint in jail would be in vain if he would settle the case with Defensor.

A week ago, on May 7, Judge Lorredo issued an order granting the release of Jun Lozada on Senate recognizance as a result of a motion backed by a Mar Roxas-authored Resolution that was adopted by the Senate. That story is told in the following articles:

Senate Takes Over Custody of Jun Lozada as He Pleads Not Guilty to Perjury Charges

The Senate Resolution that Won Back Custody Over Jun Lozada, SRN-1049 (Adopted Resolution No. 172), Filed by Senator Mar Roxas

VINDICATION! — "My decision to protest the abuses ... by this government by refusing to post bail has now yielded victory" — Jun Lozada, May 7, 2009

 

Add Post To: | Digg| Technorati| Tip'd| del.icio.us| Stumbleupon| Reddit| BlinkList| Furl| Spurl| Yahoo| Simpy|

My Notes on the ANC Leadership Forum, May 11, 2009

11 May 2009 9:10 pm

I arrived home from work in time to catch what was left of the ANC Leadership Forum aired live at ANC (ABS-CBN News Channel). The ANC Leadership Forum, held at the Loyola campus of the Ateneo de Manila University, was hosted by Tina Monzon-Palma and Ricky Carandang. 

The presidentiables who attended the forum are Senator Chiz Escudero, Senator Richard Gordon, Governor Ed Panlilio, Senator Mar Roxas and Secretary Gilbert Teodoro.  

I took these notes, obviously incomplete  and probably containing some inaccuracies, which is my fault alone:

Question - Will you form a coalition with Manny Pacquiao's political party?

Gordon: Yes.

Panlilio: Yes, if people with him adopt principles of good governance.

Roxas: He should remain a symbol of unity, an idol of the youth.

Teodoro: Yes, he is very much welcome ... he has good drawing power.

Escudero: Yes, 'wag n'ya lang isama yung pinuntahan n'ya kanina sa Malacañang ...

Question - What was the last book you read or the last movie you've seen?

Panlilio  :  Book: Leadership Secrets of St. Paul

Roxas  :  Book: 1776 about the American Revolution

Teodoro  :  Book: Power and Prosperity, about rewards and incentives; Movie: John Adams, about the second President of the United States

Escudero:  Book:  Dinner with a Perfect Stranger;  Movie: Kasal, Kasali, Kasalo

Gordon   :  Book:  Audacity of Hope by Barack Obama; Movie: We are Marshals

Question:  Will you support an investigation of the Arroyo family for corruption allegations?

Roxas  :  Yes.  NBN-ZTE, fertilizer scam ... etc.

Teodoro  :  Walang makakapara n'yan.  Ngunit kung ito'y haka-haka ... political harassment, tutulungan ko ang aking Pangulo.  Secretary Teodoro is runaway winner of  the Most Loyal to GMA Award.

Escudero :  Yes.  Dapat panagutin s'ya sa mga pagkakamali at paglabag sa batas na ginawa n'ya.

Gordon  :  Kung magpa-file ng kaso, dapat i-file.  Hindi dapat haka-haka, hindi kuro-kuro.

Panlilio  :  We must be a nation of laws ... dapat lang magkaroon ng prosecution dito.  Let the law and justice take its course.  Hindi lang sa gobyerno ... kahit sa private sector at mga simbahan ... may corruption.

Question :  What are the positive contributions of the Arroyo administration?

Teodoro  :  Maraming positive, 7.3 pct GDP growth ... etc.

Escudero :  Isa lang para sa 'kin.  Dahil sa ilang paglabag sa batas ... at hirap na dinaranas ng ating mga kababayan ... Ginalit n'ya ang maraming Pilipino ... para makilahok sa susunod na halalan.  This is the most creative answer of the night. Expect bright answers like this from Senator Chiz no matter what position he eventually runs for in 2010.

Gordon   :  Transaction sa lahat ng mga Congressman.  Kapag naging Presidente, wala na dapat kaibigan ... truth palagi hindi lies.  But she has work ethic ... Kulang sa suheto sa mga nakapaligid.

Panlilio  :  When I first read this question, hindi ako makatulog.  Nag-provide siya ng transition nung mabakante ang presidency.  Sa environment, pinirmahan n'ya agad yung zero waste management law nung 2001 and last year yung R.A. on renewable energy... kung ii-implement n'ya ito is a different matter altogether.  What is often lacking is the political will to implement these programs.

Roxas  :  Ang isang mabuting nagawa ni Pangulong Arroyo ... inappoint n'ya kong DTI Secretary.  Sinuportahan n'ya ko nung nilabanan ko ang pharmaceutical cartel ... sinimulan ko yung IT BPO call center space ... gumawa kami ng strategic plan ... nilabanan ko yung cement cartel. This was the best self-promo campaign of the night.     

Question :  Who do you admire the most, living or dead?

Escudero :  Walang iisa ... piliin yung magagandang qualities sa lahat ng tao

Gordon  :  My father ... an American who became Filipino and raised his children as Filipinos.  This was the most emotional moment of the night as Senator Gordon fought back tears while reminiscing about his late father.

Panlilio  :  Andres Bonifacio, Tarik Soliman, Jose Abad Santos.  He related how then Chief Justice Jose Abad Santos, seeing his son crying, told him:  "Don't cry. Not everyone is given the opportunity to die for his country." (Abad Santos was executed by the Japanese in 1942 for his refusal to render the oath of allegiance to the Japanese Empire.) I rate this the most patriotic answer of the forum especially given the way Among Ed delivered it. Any Filipino who makes positive mention of Andres Bonifacio and reflects proudly on Jose Abad Santos' now-forgotten sacrifice  in the same sentence must have within him beating a patriot's heart. I looked up Tarik Soliman and it turns out he's a Capampangan who fought in the Battle of Bangkusay.   

Roxas  :  among the living, Cory Aquino;  among the dead, his father, Gerry Roxas

Teodoro  :  Rizal, Bonifacio, Marine soldier ...

After this, the would-be candidates gave their one minute closing messages.

My position remains the same, issues are more important than personalities.  It's too early to pick a presidential bet just yet. Let's ask them, from where they are, from whatever public position they occupy, to SPEAK OUT and WORK NOW on the issues that can improve our lives and secure a better future for the Philippines.  

Take the case of Senator Mar Roxas, for example.  I have two posts concerning him regarding tuition fee increases and has actually emailed him on one of them at mar@marroxas.com, without receiving any reply so far.  These posts are:

Let's Encourage Senator Mar Roxas to Make a Clear, Principled Stand on the Issue of Tuition Fee Increases (Lalaban Tayo!)

Let's Urge Sen. Mar Roxas to Act Quickly On Two (2) Tuition Fee-Related Resolutions Filed by Sen. Manny Villar (Ngayon Na, Now Na!)

Now, Senator Mar Roxas has done many things for this country especially in the ongoing investigation of the Legacy scam and I have given him credit whenever he deserves it, for example, in this post:  The Senate Resolution that Won Back Custody Over Jun Lozada, SRN-1049 (Adopted Resolution No. 172), Filed by Senator Mar Roxas.

But he should really work on the issue of tuition fee and state his position clearly if he is to maintain his credibility. Napaka-importante po nito para hindi niya pansinin. This issue belongs to what should be his "core advocacies" because he is the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Education, Arts and Culture.  Siya po dapat ang unang pumapadyak sa isyung ito. Hindi ko po siya kukulitin dito kung wala siyang pwede o DAPAT na gawin.  You can email Senator Mar Roxas at mar@marroxas.com and this is the Official Mar Roxas website.

The same principle goes for all of these aspiring presidentiables, not just Mar Roxas.  

I'll appreciate it a lot if you can give me guidance or share with me your thoughts on this matter.  

 

For more on the issues over personality paradigm, here's my post dated March 30, 2009,  2010 Presidential Campaign Issues. 

Add Post To: | Digg| Technorati| Tip'd| del.icio.us| Stumbleupon| Reddit| BlinkList| Furl| Spurl| Yahoo| Simpy|

VINDICATION! — "My decision to protest the abuses ... by this government by refusing to post bail has now yielded victory" — Jun Lozada, May 7, 2009

THE JUN LOZADA WATCH

7 May 2009 11:16pm

Earlier tonight, I had the opportunity to visit Jun Lozada at the Medical Center Manila where he's still gradually recuperating after suffering from low blood pressure and dehydration the past few days.  

I was in his room for, I guess, nearly thirty minutes.  

Before I left, I requested Jun to give his message to our people and despite his condition (with dextrose needle still embedded in his left hand), he happily obliged. He wrote the message on a regular size bond paper; it's actually a printout of my latest post, The Senate Resolution that Won Back Custody Over Jun Lozada, SRN-1049 (Adopted Resolution No. 172), Filed by Senator Mar Roxas, before coming over to Medical Center Manila.  As he began to write his message on the right-hand margin of the page, I took some pictures of Jun Lozada; it felt as if I had encountered a man who personified the best in both our national heroes, Jose Rizal and Andres Bonifacio, all at once.  Here was a man who has courage, intelligence, love of country and fellowmen, humility and faith in abundant measure. 

This is the text of Jun's message which he wrote in Tagalog (Pilipino) from his hospital bed:

Mayo 7, 2009

MCM Hospital

Rm 8837

8:55pm

Para sa Bayang Pilipino,

Nagagalak akong makipag-ugnayan sa inyo sa pamamagitan ng sipi na ito.  Salamat sa inyong patuloy na pagsuporta sa aking pakikibaka para sa katotohanan at katarungan.

Itong araw na ito ay mahalaga sa ating laban.  Ang aking pasya na magprotesta sa pang-aabuso ng gobyernong ito sa akin sa pamamagitan ng hindi pagpiyansa ay nagbunga ng tagumpay ngayon.

Marami pang pagsubok tayong haharapin at ako ay muling humihingi ng inyong pananalangin na tayo ay patnubayang muli ng ating Panginoon.

Jun Lozada 

Here is my translation in English:

May 7, 2009

MCM Hospital

Rm 8837

8:55pm

For the Filipino People,

I am glad to communicate with you through this letter. Thank you for your continued support in my fight for truth and justice.

This day is an important one for our struggle.  My decision to protest the abuses against me by this government by refusing to post bail has now yielded victory.

We are going to face more trials ahead and I'm renewing my appeal for you to continue praying so that our Lord will guide us once again.

Jun Lozada 

I would like to commend here the Senate security detail that was guarding Jun Lozada.  For obvious reasons, I did not take pictures of them or of their deployment. I can only say that they're all polite and did not appear menacing. I had a pleasant conversation with some of them while waiting for my turn to be led inside Jun's room.  

Theirs could be one of the most important jobs in the world right now.  With custody over Jun Lozada wrestled away from the police through the petition for recognizance filed by the Senate, they are holding with them literally a national treasure. 

Even closer to Jun is his "close-in security detail" led by Sr. Mary John Mananzan and her army of sisters who have been with Jun since the beginning of his ordeal. 

And to those of us who believe that Jun Lozada is divinely protected, there is a third force of powerful unseen beings we call angels who keep watch over him.   

And yes, if this formidable security is not enough, we have our God who never sleeps nor slumbers. Nothing happens without His permission. As long as He wills it, Jun Lozada cannot be touched.  And that's where our prayers, our praise and our intercession come in.  

To God be the glory!

Author's Note:  8 May 2009, 2:30am

My scanner is still down and my camera would not communicate with my PC for me to transfer the picture of the piece of bond paper that bears Jun's message. I'll upload it as soon as I can. Thank you for bearing with me.

 

 

 

Add Post To: | Digg| Technorati| Tip'd| del.icio.us| Stumbleupon| Reddit| BlinkList| Furl| Spurl| Yahoo| Simpy|

The Senate Resolution that Won Back Custody Over Jun Lozada, SRN-1049 (Adopted Resolution No. 172), Filed by Senator Mar Roxas

THE JUN LOZADA WATCH

7 May 2009

Here is a copy of the now-historic Senate Resolution that won back custody of Jun Lozada early this morning (please click on the images to enlarge them):

The Resolution is authored by Senator Mar Roxas and signed with him by Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, and by Sens. Rodolfo Biazon, Benigno Aquino III, Loren Legarda, Jamby Madrigal, Francis Escudero, Jinggoy Estrada, Gregorio Honasan, Alan Peter Cayetano and Pia Cayetano. 

Add Post To: | Digg| Technorati| Tip'd| del.icio.us| Stumbleupon| Reddit| BlinkList| Furl| Spurl| Yahoo| Simpy|