Will Shalani Soledad, Noynoy Aquino's Girlfriend, Run for Congress? If So, Against Whom?

14 August 2009

For about two days now, I've looked at reports that Senator Noynoy Aquino's girlfriend, Shalani Soledad, who is an incumbent councilor of Valenzuela City is being groomed to run for Congress. This is the report by GMA News filed by Sherry Ann Torres:

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If indeed she's going to run, the next question is, who will she be running against?

Let's try to find out.

First, who are the incumbent Congressmen of Valenzuela City?  They are Rexlon T. Gatchalian for District 1 and Magtanggol T. Gunigundo for District 2.

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Second, what district does Shalani represent as a Councilor? District 2

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Third, the facts above tell us that if Shalani runs for Congress, it will most probably be against incumbent Congressman Magtanggol Gunigundo of District 2.

Fourth, who is Congressman Magtanggol T. Gunigundo?  Below is a portion of the information available on Congressman Gunigundo straight from the Congress website.

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Summing up from where I sit:

1) Qualifications-wise and experience-wise, Atty. Magtanggol Gunigundo, will be an extremely tough opponent regardless of who he is up against.

2)  Shalani is definitely much prettier (sorry po, konting pakwela lang) and is not exactly a laggard as far as qualifications and political experience is concerned. 

3)  Judging from the enormous interest in Shalani not only in the Philippines but across the globe which I've personally seen watching the feedjit live traffic feed in this blog for the past few days, I believe it might be easier for her to win a Senate seat than to beat a heavily-experienced incumbent Congressman in a district race.  

In the Senate, you'll have 12 seats available in 2010 and there'll be 12 winners; in a district, it's one-on-one, only one candidate wins, all the others lose. 

(This really depends on just how popular Congressman Magtanggol Gunigundo is in his district: how many projects he's delivered to his constituents, how close he is to the barangay officials and all of the nitty-gritty that decide elections at the local level where the influence of patronage politics is much more pronounced than it is at the national level.  Of course, Shalani has had her chance to serve the same Valenzuela district constituency for nearly 2 full terms since 2004.  No less than Mayor Win Gatchalian has said that "she's our no.1 councilor.") 

4)  Or could it be that Congressman Magtanggol Gunigundo is running for the Senate in 2010, or maybe for Mayor of Valenzuela City, or probably, even retiring from politics?  Who knows?

Of course, all these is in the realm of speculation and Noynoy, who should know better than we do, might be right when he said in response to questions by media people regarding the reported plans for Shalani to run for Congress, "I don't know, I don't think so ... parang I think she's opting for reelection eh.  She hasn't told me she has changed her plan.  Mas alam niya lugar niya, desisyon niya, career niya. Ako'y taga support lang."  

 

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