Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Noli De Castro Tops Pulse Asia's May 2009 Presidentiables Survey, Plus Other Pulse Asia Findings

2 June 2009

Vice President Noli de Castro topped the latest Pulse Asia survey with four other presidential contenders breathing down his neck.  These are Escudero, Estrada, Villar and Roxas.  

The survey fieldwork was conducted from May 4 to May 17, 2009 using face-to-face interviews.

Says Pulse Asia in its report, "if the May 2010 elections were held today, five individuals would garner about the same percentages of votes cast" indicating a very close race among the above contenders. 

Here's the report from Saksi:

Also, straight from the Pulse Asia website,  here is the summary of their findings.  

Since they explicitly made this request — "We request you to assist us in informing the public by dissseminating this information," I take it to mean that I can reproduce their report in full here: 


Pulse Asia's May 2009 Nationwide Survey on Filipinos' Presidential Preference for the May 2010 Elections

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on Filipinos' Presidential Preference for the May 2010 Elections from the May 2009 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from May 4 to 17, 2009 using face-to-face interviews. Among the developments that dominated the news headlines prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey were: the global spread of the AH1N1 virus; the declaration of additional winners in the May 2007 party-list elections; the disqualification of all poll automation bidders which fueled talks about a no-election scenario next year; the continued charter change discussions and in particular, House Speaker Prospero Nograles’ declaration that a constitutional convention would be convened by August 2009; the Senate investigation into various issues most especially the ethics case against Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr.; the deaths and destruction of properties from the typhoons that hit the Philippines recently; the tragedy that hit the Failon family and the ensuing verbal tussles involving the Philippine National Political (PNP), National Bureau of Investigation (NBI), and Department of Justice (DOJ) concerning the investigation of the case; the arrest of Engr. Rodolfo Lozada, Jr. on perjury charges; the latest boxing victory of Manny Pacquiao and speculations as regards his political plans for May 2010; and the drop in Meralco power rates and the fluctuating prices of diesel and gasoline..

As in our previous surveys, this nationwide survey is based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a ± 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a ± 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Those interested in further technical details concerning the survey's questionnaire and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.  

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Presidential race remains tight

Despite continued talks about a no-election scenario and uncertainties regarding the automation of the May 2010 elections, the level of public interest in the elections remains high with practically all Filipinos having favored presidential, vice-presidential, and senatorial candidates for May 2010. With about a year to go before the May 2010 elections, Filipinos are still divided when it comes to their choice of their next president.  If the May 2010 elections were held today, five individuals would garner about the same percentages of votes cast.  These are Vice-President Noli L. de Castro (18%), Senator Francis G. Escudero (17%), former President Joseph Estrada (15%), Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (14%), and Senator Manuel A. Roxas II (13%).  The other personalities included in the presidential probe register voter preference of 7% or less.  Meanwhile, virtually all Filipinos already have a preferred presidential bet with only 4% disinclined to vote for any of the individuals whose presidential voter preferences are probed in this survey (See Table 1).

In Metro Manila and the best-off Class ABC, Senator Escudero (26%) is the top presidential bet.  In Mindanao, former President Estrada (27%) and Vice-President de Castro (21%) have almost the same voter preferences. The five presidential candidates currently leading at the national level also enjoy nearly the same levels of electoral support in the rest of Luzon (13% to 18%) and the most numerous Class D (14% to 17%).  In the Visayas, the favored presidentiables are Senator Roxas (22%), Senator Villar (20%), Vice-President de Castro (18%), and Senator Escudero (15%), while class E favors Vice-President de Castro (25%), former President Estrada (19%), Senator Escudero (15%) and Senator Villar (13%) (See Table 1).

Between February and May 2009, the movements in the voter preferences of these personalities fall within the survey’s error margin of +/- 3 percentage points.  The most marked changes during this period are the 5 percentage-point improvement enjoyed by Senator Roxas and the 5 percentage-point erosion recorded by Senator Loren Legarda (See Table 2).

About one in three Filipinos (34%) is voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate’s being helpful to others, particularly the poor (27.3%) and OFWs (6.6%).  This is a view shared by 28.0% to 42.9% across geographic areas and socio-economic classes.  For around one in ten Filipinos (11.6%), the chosen candidate’s having many accomplishments is the reason cited for supporting his/her presidential bid.  A candidate’s being clean or not corrupt is cited by 7.1%, one’s goodness as a person (i.e., being mabait or mabuting tao) is mentioned by 5.6%, and one’s being a fighter (i.e., palaban) is identified by 5.4% as the reasons for favoring a presidential bet.  On the other hand, 30.6% of Filipinos cite a cluster of other attributes including a candidate’s being intelligent (5.0%), his/her being from the same geographic area or ethnic group as the respondent (3.0%), having good intentions for the country (2.5%), being independent or may sariling disposisyon (2.4%), being good at what he/she does (2.3%), pro-people or makatao (1.9%), being knowledgeable in the management of governmental affairs (1.8%), being strict (1.6%), being hardworking (1.6%), having the ability to fulfill promises made and other things (1.3%), being loyal (1.3%), being used to poverty or being poor him/herself (1.1%), being young (1.1%), and being approachable (1.0%)(Tables 3A3B and 3C)


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